South Asia can boost trade to US$20bn: World Bank

At present, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka - who together form regional alliance called SAARC - carry out only 5% of their total trade
South Asia could boost its annual trade volume more than six times to US$20bn from just US$3bn, provided countries in the region increase cooperation among themselves, a senior World Bank official said on Sunday.
"Potential for South Asia trade is between US$15bn and US$20bn if we look at the indicator of informal trade," said Sadiq Ahmed, World Bank's Director of Regional Cooperation for South Asia.
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka - who are all part of a regional alliance called SAARC - carry out only 5% of their total trade among themselves, Sadiq told reporters in Dhaka yesterday.
"To reap the fruits of cooperation, the nations need to have consensus among their political and business leaders ... to remove all bottlenecks including tariff and non-tariff barriers," he said.
At 25% South Asia's tariffs, along with other charges, are the highest in the world, according to Ahmed. Tariffs elsewhere are not more than 15%, he added.
To improve regional trade, Ahmed proposed a single customs declaration, one-stop border posts, standard border crossing processes, harmonised transit charges, simpler travel rules and a visa exemption for businessmen.
He also stressed security in food, water and energy. "This is a massive problem especially for the least developed countries and they can not solve it in isolation as at present those are global issues," the Washington based official said.
Bhutan and Nepal are already actively engaged in exporting hydro-power to energy-starved India. "The hydro-power potential in Nepal is estimated at 80,000 megawatts (MW), of which at least 40,000 MW is considered economical," Ahmed said.
The neighbouring countries, including energy-starved Bangladesh could meet energy demand largely through intra regional cooperation, he said.
"Nepal can also almost double its per capita income in a few years with appropriate investments in hydro-power along with trading arrangements with its neighbours, especially India," Ahmed said.
"Over the longer term, an integrated South Asia power grid can provide power to all countries on a market basis."

Lehman sues Marubeni for $352 million

Lehman sues Marubeni for $352 million
Michiyo Nakamoto / Tokyo April 1, 2008
Lehman Brothers filed suit on Monday against Marubeni, one of Japan's biggest trading firms, for Y35 billion ($352 million) after the US bank fell victim to an alleged fraud perpetrated by two former employees of the Japanese group.

Lehman’s complaint, filed with the Tokyo District Court, aims to try to recover money lost in a complex scheme that potentially involved forged documents and a third man posing as a senior general manager of the Japanese firm.

Marubeni claimed it was itself a victim of the fraud conducted by a few individuals and said it knew nothing of the scheme until contacted by Lehman. “Marubeni is a victim of having agreements and other documents forged in its name, and a criminal report has been submitted to the police,” it said.

The amounts involved in the Lehman claim pale in comparison with the ¤4.9 billion ($7.4 billion) lost by Société Générale on the positions built by the French bank’s rogue trader but there are fears that the vehicle at the heart of the Marubeni case could have raised money from a number of other investors.

According to Lehman, the Y35 billion in funds and fees related to an investment in a medical business.

The bank entered into a transaction with two Marubeni employees, who were then senior leaders of the trading group’s life care business department.

The two employees have been fired but Marubeni has not disclosed the reason — saying only that they are former employees.

Under the agreement, Lehman was to be repaid the funds with fees, with the first payment due on February 29.

Yet Marubeni failed to pass on any payments and then claimed the documents governing the investment were fake.

An internal investigation by Marubeni “confirmed that Marubeni had no involvement in the forgery of these documents”, the Japanese bank said. “Accordingly, we have no obligation to pay any of these demands.”It also said the medical business itself was “fictional”.

Lehman said it was confident it undertook all appropriate measures on the transaction and was commencing legal action against Marubeni to seek recovery of funds it believed to have been fraudulently misappropriated from transactions in which an affiliate provided financing.

The bank was confident in its case and expected funds to be repaid.

भारत: वृद्धि दर 8.1 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान

सिंगापुर। मुद्रास्फीति से निपटने के लिए ऊंची ब्याज दरों और व्यापार घाटे के चलते वर्ष 2008..09 में भारत में वृद्धि दर 8.1 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान है जो चालू वित्तीय वर्ष के दौरान 8.7 फीसदी रहने की संभावना है।

हांगकांग में सिटीग्रुप के मुख्य अर्थशास्त्र्री यिपिंग हुआंग ने कहा कि तेल और खाद्य पदार्थों की कीमतों से मुद्रास्फीति की बढती दर एशियाई देशों के लिए चिंता की मुख्य वजह है।उन्होंने कहा “हालांकि अधिकतर एशियाई देशों की अर्थव्यवस्था में शुरुआती दौर में मंदी रही और हाल में अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था में आई तेजी से गिरावट सबसे बडी चिंता है।”

एक सर्वे के मुताबिक अमेरिका और यूरोप की ओर से मांग में कमी की वजह से इस वर्ष एशिया की आर्थिक वृद्धि दर कमजोर पड गयी है और इस क्षेत्र में निर्यात पर खासा असर देखा गया।

चीन की अर्थव्यवस्था लगातार छठे साल भी दो अंकों की वृद्धि दर के आंकडे पर बरकरार है लेकिन प्रसार की गति धीमी पडने की वजह से क्षेत्र से वस्तुओं के निर्यात में कमी आयी है जिन्हें अमेरिका और यूरोप भेजा जाना था।पेइचिंग के अर्थशास्त्री लिन सोंग ली ने कहा “सबसे बडी चिंता इस बात की है कि अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था जापान और यूरोप को बर्बाद कर देगी और इस तरह चीन के निर्यात क्षेत्र पर भी असर पड़ॆगा।”

जापान को छोडकर एशिया प्रशांत के 12 देशों की अर्थव्यवस्था के सर्वेक्षण में 11 देशों के सकल घरेलू उत्पाद की वृद्धि दर में गत दिसंबर में हुए ऐसे सर्वे के मुकाबले कमी देखी गयी। सिर्फ ताईवान द्वीप में वृद्धि दर में कोई बदलाव नहीं दिखा।इस बीच अर्थशास्त्रियों ने पूरे क्षेत्र में इस वर्ष के लिए मुद्रास्फीति के कयास लगाने शुरु कर दिए हैं।माना जा रहा है कि 2008 में चीन की आर्थिक वृद्धि दर पिछले वर्ष 11.4 फीसदी के मुकाबले 10 प्रतिशत तक खिसक कर चली जाएगी जो एक दशक में पहली गिरावट है।

दक्षिण कोरिया की अर्थव्यवस्था 2008 में तीन वर्ष के सबसे निचले स्तर 4.6 प्रतिशत तक पहुंचने का अनुमान है जबकि सिंगापुर में यह दर पिछले वर्ष के 7.7 के मुकाबले 5.6 फीसदी तक गिर सकती है।थाइलैंड की वृद्धि दर 4.6 फीसदी तक पहुंच सकती है लेकिन दिसंबर में हुए शांतिपूर्ण चुनाव के बाद लोकतंत्र की बहाली से अर्थव्यवस्था को काफी बल मिला है।

Will the momentum continue?

One ought to keep one`s antennas on high alert to gauge any incidents. The immediate event to watch is the upcoming F&O expiry on Thursday.

Markets extended their gains to fourth straight trading session as firm cues from the international equity markets coupled with buying momentum in the index heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ONGC, DLF and ICICI Bank lifted the markets to surge higher. The benchmark Sensex posted its second biggest single day points gain simultaneously its biggest single day points rally since January 25, 2008. The rally could be attributed to buying momentum in scrip across the sectors. All the Sectoral indices on BSE ended in green.

Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex added 928 points to 16,217 and the Nifty index added 267 points to close at 4,877. Overall about 2,076 stocks advanced; 639 stocks declined while 47 stocks remained unchanged. Among the 50 Nifty 48 stocks ended in positive territory. On the other hand, only 1 stock ended in red.

BSE Realty index (up 9.5%), BSE Bankex index (up 8.1%), BSE IT index (up 7.7%), BSE Power index (up 6.5%) and BSE Metal index (up 6.4%). BSE Mid-Cap index (up 6.3%) and Small-Cap index (up 4.8%).

Jet Airways surged by over 7% to Rs548. Reports stated that the company would sell 10% stake to FIIs before rights offer. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs558 and a low of Rs512 and recorded volumes of over 32,000 shares on BSE.

Aurobindo Pharma further gained by over 4% to Rs258 after the company on Monday announced that they acquired TAD Italy, a generic company with 70 ready-to-market products, for an undisclosed amount. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs261 and a low of Rs250 and recorded volumes of over 37,000 shares on BSE.

Sun Pharma slipped by 2.1% to Rs1252. According to reports, the USFDA has asked the US subsidiary of Sun Pharmaceuticals to withdraw many batches of its generic Metformin Hydrochloride tablets used for treating diabetes, citing efficacy and quality issues. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1300 and a low of Rs1240 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on BSE.

JP Associates rallied by over 16% to Rs233 after the company announced that they would sell 1% stake in unit to ICICI Bank. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs236 and a low of Rs207 and recorded volumes of over shares 78,00,000 on BSE.

Jyoti Structures surged by over 4% to Rs162 after the company said that they secured order worth US$39.64mn from Uganda Electricity. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs170 and a low of Rs157 and recorded volumes of over 25,000 shares on BSE.

Reliance Industries, manufacturers of petrochemicals, synthetic fibers and textile, plans to close down all the petroleum retail outlets owned by it directly, according to reports. The rising crude prices and the absence of government subsidies have made operations unviable, the report stated. The scrip ended at Rs2314 gaining by 5.1% after hitting an intra-day high of Rs2325 and a low of Rs2220 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on BSE.

Four Soft was up by 1% to Rs23 after the company declared that they secured software contract from IAL Group. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs24 and a low of Rs22 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on BSE.

One ought to keep one's antennas on high alert to gauge any incidents. The immediate event to watch is the upcoming F&O expiry on Thursday. The market may witness some extra volatility. So traders are advised to protect their profits.

We expect the momentum to be negative and volatile

Today the market opened negative, breaking the previous low of 4580. The channel in the downward direction has also broken the lower trend line but has come back in the channel again. On the daily charts, Nifty has taken resistance at 40 DEMA, i.e. 4759. We expect the momentum to be negative and volatile. The market breadth is negative with 90 advances and 1,087 declines. Nifty is expected to be in the range of 4550 and 5100 in the short term. The market has a strong support at 4520 and strong resistance at 4700 on intraday basis. It has broken the support at the lower end of the channel, which is close to the previous low. The daily KST has given a negative crossover and is below the zero line.

On hourly charts, KST is forming a triangle pattern but it has given a negative crossover and is also below the zero line. Strong support at 4500 and a very strong resistance at 4710 are indicated on hourly charts. Cipla has gained momentum and is likely to test Rs220. Infosys seems to be having strong support around Rs1,310 and on the upside is likely to test Rs1,500. Banking and
Metal sectors are the worst hit.

The bulls are waiting in the darkness and praying for a miracle. But the nightmare is likely to continue.

Despite a pullback on Friday, Indian markets are expected to open on a weak note. The US Federal Reserve on Sunday slashed its discount rate by 25 basis points and sought to ease the liquidity crunch further. Expectations were of a higher cut and the Fed’s decision has not gone too well with the markets.

Despite a pullback on Friday, Indian markets are expected to open on a weak note. The US Federal Reserve on Sunday slashed its discount rate by 25 basis points and sought to ease the liquidity crunch further. Expectations were of a higher cut and the Fed’s decision has not gone too well with the markets.